臺北市
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氣象
2019-08-22 | 公共電視

Tropical Storm Bailu May Make Landfall on Aug. 24|輕颱白鹿路徑南偏 週六可能在花東間登陸

Tropical Storm Bailu continues to approach Taiwan. As a Pacific high-pressure system has been stronger than anticipated, the typhoon's path has been altered and it is moving more southerly compared to Aug. 21. The storm may make landfall in Hualien and Taitung on Aug. 24. Weather experts say the water vapor is comparatively more solid in the lower half of the storm, and it is possible the storm will continue moving in a southerly direction.

On the morning of Aug. 22, Tropical Storm Bailu arrived at a point 1,100 kilometers to the southeast of Cape Eluanbi. It has only slightly increased in intensity during the past six hours. The tropical storm has also been affected by a Pacific high-pressure system, and it is moving more southerly compared to the previous day. The chances of the typhoon approaching Taiwan remain high. If its path and speed do not change, a maritime warning may be issued as early as the morning of Aug. 23.

If we look at the current predicted path, it will have the greatest impact on us on Saturday. This is why we may issue a maritime warning tomorrow morning. We also cannot rule out issuing a land warning. If we do issue one, it will most likely be after tomorrow afternoon.

The current forecast predicts the eastern region will begin feeling the effects of the storm's periphery starting on Aug. 23, and will experience intermittent rain. Aug. 24 is when the storm is expected to be closest to Taiwan, and it will rain across the island. Several regions may experience torrential rain. The storm will begin departing on Aug. 25. Weather experts say there is a chance the storm will alter its path and move south as the composition of the storm is comparatively more solid in the lower half and a Pacific high-pressure system is strengthening.

The intensity of the Pacific high-pressure system has clearly increased and it has extended westerly between yesterday and today. This has prevented the tropical storm from developing and moving north. Moreover, the center of gravity of this tropical storm is in the southern half, so there is a greater compulsion to move south than to move west.

Experts add this storm is moving quickly, and the time it affects Taiwan will not be long. When it approaches Taiwan, its intensity should be at the upper limits for a tropical storm. The path forecasted by various countries is converging, and there is the possibility that the storm will make landfall in the Hualien to Taitung region. The public is reminded to take any necessary precautions.

輕度颱風白鹿,上午來到鵝鑾鼻東南東方一千一百多公里的海面上,過去六小時的強度略為增強,受到太平洋高壓增強影響,颱風路徑較前一天往南,侵台機率仍高,如果行進方向和速度不變,最快週五上午發布海上颱風警報。

氣象局預報員 朱美霖表示:「目前的路徑的預估來看的話呢,在週六的這一天對我們最顯著,所以說我們明天可能會在上半天,就有機會發布海上颱風警報,那陸上警報的部分,是也不排除有發布的機率,那如果說有發布的話,主要是在明天的下半天之後。」

依照目前預報資料,週五開始,東半部地區就會受到外圍環流影響,間歇降雨,週六是颱風最接近台灣的時候,全台有雨,局部地區可能有豪雨,週日颱風逐漸遠離,氣象專家表示,因為白鹿颱風下半部結構較為紮實,加上太平洋高壓增強,也不排除路徑再往南修。

天氣風險公司總經理 彭啟明表示:「太平洋高壓的強度,事實上從昨天到今天,都有明顯西伸增強的趨勢,讓這個颱風沒有辦法發展往北走,另一個是這個颱風他的這個重心,是在南側比較多,所以整個他往南的分量,相對往西往南的分量,就會比較強一點。」

專家認為,這個颱風速度快,影響台灣時間不至於太長,接近台灣時,強度應該是輕度颱風的上限,目前各國對颱風路徑的預報逐漸收斂,認為颱風有機會在花蓮到台東間登陸,請民眾做好防颱措施。

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