臺北市
35°
( 36° / 33° )
氣象
2020-05-13 | 公共電視

First Storm of Typhoon Season Coming This Weekend|今年首颱"黃蜂"形成 估週日最接近台灣

The first tropical storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season has formed. The Central Weather Bureau forecasts Vongfong will be closest to Taiwan on May 17. If it stays on course, it could bring southwesterly flow to northern Taiwan over the weekend and Taiwan could see its first classic rainy season front of the year and get some much-needed rain.

The first tropical storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season appeared at 8 p.m. on the 12th. At 2 a.m. on the 13th, Vongfang's center was 1,470 kilometers southeast of Eluanpi. As of 8 a.m., it was moving west-northwest at a speed of 9 kilometers per hour. The Central Weather Bureau says Vongfang will be closest to Taiwan on the 17th but its route and strength could keep changing.

(Vongfang) is in the process of veering off its present course, which means it is difficult to say how far away it will be from Taiwan on (May 17). How close it gets to the Philippines on its way north and unfavorable conditions in the Bashi Channel could mean it will weaken as it gets close to Taiwan.

The bureau says Vongfang could strengthen under current environmental conditions or weaken after hitting the Philippines. What kind of impact it will have on Taiwan will depend on when and at what angle it veers north. Weather in eastern and southern Taiwan will likely be unstable on the 16th and 17th.

The southwest monsoon will start in the Indo-Pacific after this weekend. There will also be a southbound front on (May 17). There will be classic rainy season fronts approaching starting the week of May 19, which will bring unstable weather to all of Taiwan.

WeatherRisk says if Vongfang does head north, it will bring southwesterly flow to Taiwan this weekend. If there are southward-moving fronts at the same time, Taiwan could be in store for some much-needed rain.

今年第一號颱風黃蜂12號晚間8點形成,從氣象局的衛星雲圖可以看見,它的中心位置,在13號清晨兩點,來到鵝鑾鼻東南方約1470公里海面上。早上八點,以每小時9公里速度慢慢地往西北西移動,強度也稍稍增強,氣象局預估17號星期日是黃蜂最接近台灣的時刻,不過路徑與強度都還有變數。

氣象局預報員 劉宇其表示:「(黃蜂)它處於一個大轉彎的過程,所以實際轉向的狀況,是有一些變數,這也會影響到,這個颱風它在禮拜天,距離台灣實際遠近的程度。第二點是這個颱風,在北上的過程當中,因為它會接近接觸菲律賓的陸地,再來就是它進入巴士海峽之後,因為台灣這邊的環境,其實相對不適合它發展,所以它在靠近台灣,這個階段的時候,強度上應該是在一個減弱的過程。」

氣象局表示,依照目前環境條件來看,黃蜂有機會變強,但最大的關鍵還是在於黃蜂進入菲律賓陸地後強度會遭破壞可能因而減弱,後續北轉的時間以及角度都連帶牽動影響台灣的強度,預估週六、週日接近巴士海峽到台灣東南部外海一帶,且受其外圍環流影響,天氣也會變的不穩定。

天氣風險公司總經理 彭啟明表示:「六、日之後,整個印度洋,它的西南季風,有逐漸要啟動的趨勢,加上禮拜天有一波鋒面會南下,5月19號禮拜二開始,二、三、四、五典型的梅雨鋒面會接近,這時候全台灣天氣會比較不穩定。」

天氣風險公司也提醒,如果周末黃蜂確實北上後,將會引來西南氣流,到時候如果又有鋒面配合南下,就有機會成為今年第一道典型的梅雨鋒面,將會在下周為台灣帶來比較劇烈大規模的降雨。

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