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2020-07-29 | 公共電視

Economist Advises Taiwan on Post-Pandemic Objectives|學者:台美FTA.加入CPTPP 對台經濟才會加分

Economist Razeen Sally, who accurately predicted the trade war between the United States and China, was recently invited by a Taiwan media outlet to give an online lecture on post-pandemic global economic changes. He advised Taiwan to end its trade dependency on China, to open up markets, and to sign a free trade agreement with the U.S.

Razeen Sally currently serves as the director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, which he co-founded, and also teaches at the National University of Singapore. A Taiwan media outlet recently invited him to give an online lecture about the new global economic situation following the COVID-19 pandemic. With regards to Taiwan, he said although disease prevention efforts have been successful, significant trade challenges remain, and he is not optimistic about trade and economic cooperation with China.

... for Taiwan and economic policy is that for you to survive, you will need to advertise your open market. A bilateral FTA with the United States, which might actually be more possible...

Sally also said the global economy won't recover until 2022 because it will require at least a year and a half to produce and commercialize a vaccine. He predicted not a V-shaped reversal, but a sluggish recovery. Tensions between the United States and China have increased recently, which could affect the global economy. Some scholars warn that Taiwan should not rashly choose sides.

You should "borrow strength and use strength" following the supply chain relocation trend to maintain an economic distance with China.

Scholars add that out of the industries moving out of China, only the semiconductor industry has been successful and other industries maintain close trade ties with China. Completely severing ties with China will batter Taiwan's economy and the government needs to make a prudent assessment and progressively transfer production capacity to Southeast Asia. A comprehensive set of measures for returning Taiwan businesspersons also needs to be in place for effective investment.

目前任教於新加坡國立大學,也是歐洲國際政治經濟中心共同創辦人拉澤恩.薩利,受國內平面媒體之邀,線上主講"疫情後全球經濟新情勢"。針對台灣部分,他強調,台灣雖防疫有成,但國際貿易處境卻是更大挑戰。對於來自中國經貿合作不容樂觀。

亞洲首席經濟學家 拉澤恩.薩利表示:「台灣對外貿易政策,要在全球競爭生存,應該要開放市場,與美國簽訂雙邊自由貿易協定,比較有可能。」

拉澤恩.薩利認為,全球經濟全面復甦,恐怕要等到2022年,因為疫苗問世,到大量商業使用,至少還要一年半以上。全球經濟恐怕不是V型反轉,而是緩慢復甦。另外,美中對抗加劇,全球經濟情勢變化大,對於經濟新變局,有學者認為,台灣不該貿然押寶選邊站。

中經院WTO及RTA中心副執行長 李淳表示:「順著這樣一個供應鏈搬遷的趨勢呢,就是借力使力的方式來,就是跟中國保持一個,經濟上面的距離啦。」

學者表示,目前產業"去中化"較顯著的產業,現階段只有"半導體業",其餘產業仍與對岸保持密切經貿合作關係,完全切斷與中國關係,對台經濟衝擊不小。台灣政府應該審慎評估,逐步移轉產能到東南亞,台商回流也要配套措施,投資效益才會浮現。

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